Toronto's population decline: a surprising shift and its implications
Toronto's population is on the decline, and it's not just a blip. For a city that has seen steady growth for years, this sudden reversal is a cause for curiosity and concern. Let's dive into the numbers and uncover where Torontonians are heading and why.
The latest data from Statistics Canada reveals a fascinating trend. Between July 2024 and July 2025, the Toronto census metropolitan area (CMA), which encompasses the city and its surrounding regions, experienced a population drop of 992 people. This is the second time since 2001 that Toronto's population hasn't grown year-over-year, and the only other instance was during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
But here's where it gets controversial: Toronto's population decline is not due to a lack of births or immigration. In fact, births in the Toronto CMA reached a five-year high, and immigration levels were above pre-pandemic numbers. So, what's causing this exodus?
The answer lies in emigration and internal migration. The Toronto CMA recorded the highest net emigration since data collection began in 2001, and it also saw its largest loss of non-permanent residents. While Toronto still had a net positive gain from international migration in 2025, it was the smallest gain in over two decades. And this is the part most people miss: Toronto is losing people to other parts of Canada.
In 2024-2025, the Toronto CMA lost a staggering 77,492 people to internal migration. That's more than the entire population of Fredericton, New Brunswick! Toronto saw the highest losses from both intra-provincial and inter-provincial moves, with Montreal coming in second. This trend is not new, but it's becoming increasingly noticeable.
So, where are Torontonians heading? Many are staying within the province, with Oshawa being the top destination, followed by Hamilton. But beyond Ontario, Torontonians are increasingly attracted to Alberta, with Calgary and Edmonton seeing significant net gains from Toronto. Interestingly, the only place sending more people to Toronto than it receives is Montreal.
Within the Toronto CMA, Mississauga experienced the biggest population drop, losing over 16,700 people, a 2.14% decrease from 2024. The City of Toronto itself lost just over 8,500, while Brampton shed another 5,822. However, other areas like Milton, Pickering, Oakville, and Vaughan saw gains, helping to balance out the overall numbers for the CMA.
The data suggests that Canadians, including new immigrants, are opting for smaller, more affordable places to settle. With Toronto's sky-high housing prices, long commutes, and rising cost of living, it's no surprise that people are seeking cheaper and quieter lives elsewhere. Cities like Ottawa are gaining traction, with their share of immigrants almost doubling in five years.
Whether it's affordability, a slower pace, or a fresh start, tens of thousands of people are making the move. For now, Toronto remains the country's largest city, but if this trend continues, its title may be in jeopardy.
What do you think? Would you ever leave Toronto? Share your thoughts in the comments and let's discuss this intriguing shift in population dynamics.
